Water AlliesTier 2
at Michigan HVN Regionals
decks
2
(2.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
5-6-0
overall winrate
45.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.1%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
48.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1181
· median 1181
· range 1159–1203
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1166
Q3 1385
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.8% | +4.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Water Genbu | 7.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.2% | +4.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Seiryuu | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
